GSK Trelegy Ellipta: Forecasting Its Evolution
February 08, 2018
Developing triple therapies for COPD has been fashionable for a while. GSK, AZ, BI, Chiesi are at it. I had the chance in the last few years to review the field and publish articles on the topic:
- Advances in drug delivery: Is triple therapy the future for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease? (2011; https://doi.org/10.1517/14656566.2011.589837)
- Is there a future for triple therapy in COPD? (2011; https://www.slideshare.net/progueda/is-there-a-future-for-triple-therapy-in-copd-ph-rogueda-14-april-2011-7666596)
- Inhaled triple therapy: who's bothering? (2016; http://aedestra.com/blog/inhaled-triple-therapy-who%E2%80%99s-bothering)
Forecasting the success of triple therapy is difficult. Clinical efficacy is not enough, products have to be seen within their commercial context: payor, patients, practitioners. Financial analysts provide the best reviews because they give a context and hard financials against clinical studies.
Seeking Alpha published an analysis of the potential of Trelegy worth reading: Understanding GlaxoSmithKline's Trelegy Ellipta (2018):
Trelegy was approved for use in the US on 18 September 2017 for the long-term, once-daily, maintenance treatment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), including chronic bronchitis and/or emphysema. Trelegy is made of fluticasone furoate 100 mcg, umeclidinium 62.5 mg and vilanterol 25 mcg: the ICS component places it at odds with BI view on the use of ICS.
Current Trelegy sales forecast stand at $780m per annum. A fantasy figure for now that keeps on fluctuating. In 4Q17 recorded sales were $2m. Breo and Anoro Ellipta launches have so far been disappointing.
Read the analysis to get a flavour of where Trelegy and triple therapies might be going next!
Philippe @ aedestra.com
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