GSK Trelegy Ellipta: Forecasting Its Evolution

GSK Trelegy Ellipta: Forecasting Its Evolution

February 08, 2018

Developing triple therapies for COPD has been fashionable for a while. GSK, AZ, BI, Chiesi are at it. I had the chance in the last few years to review the field and publish articles on the topic:

Forecasting the success of triple therapy is difficult. Clinical efficacy is not enough, products have to be seen within their commercial context: payor, patients, practitioners. Financial analysts provide the best reviews because they give a context and hard financials against clinical studies.

Seeking Alpha published an analysis of the potential of Trelegy worth reading: Understanding GlaxoSmithKline's Trelegy Ellipta (2018):

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4144421-understanding-glaxosmithklines-trelegy-ellipta?auth_param=10ssk7:1d7o7o6:2e4a16c0b4da3a1f1325d49098a1cd6a&uprof=66&dr=1

Trelegy was approved for use in the US on 18 September 2017 for the long-term, once-daily, maintenance treatment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), including chronic bronchitis and/or emphysema. Trelegy is made of fluticasone furoate 100 mcg, umeclidinium 62.5 mg and vilanterol 25 mcg: the ICS component places it at odds with BI view on the use of ICS.

Current Trelegy sales forecast stand at $780m per annum. A fantasy figure for now that keeps on fluctuating. In 4Q17 recorded sales were $2m. Breo and Anoro Ellipta launches have so far been disappointing.

Read the analysis to get a flavour of where Trelegy and triple therapies might be going next!

Philippe @ aedestra.com

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